SEOUL — Tighter international sanctions and a host of domestic problems including chronic food shortages could spark regime collapse in North Korea, an influential think-tank says.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), in a report released late Monday, said the communist state's internal problems could have unanticipated implications for regional and international security.
While the regime is unlikely to start a war it knows it would lose, it could engage in more dangerous proliferation activities because sanctions on weapons exports have squeezed foreign exchange earnings, the report said.
In the absence of traditional purchasers, the nuclear-armed North had a greater incentive to sell weapons to terrorist groups or international crime organisations.
"Kim Jong-Il?s political machine requires hard currency to operate, and there are several signs that the regime is increasingly desperate to earn it," the ICG said.
The North "is facing several domestic problems that in isolation would each be manageable but together could threaten regime survival," said Daniel Pinkston, the group's northeast Asia deputy project director.
"The North Korean government has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to survive, but the regime is under extreme pressure when it must also deal with looming succession issues."
The 68-year-old Kim, who suffered a stroke in August 2008, has apparently chosen his third son Jong-Un as eventual successor. But it is unclear whether the son has the personal qualities or support to tackle "unprecedented" challenges, the report said.
In the short term, a smooth transition was likely. But if the successor could not improve the economy or tackle other crises, there could be a violent power struggle resulting in an army takeover or regime collapse, the Brussels-based ICG said.
The report said foreign exchange sources are drying up as UN sanctions crimp lucrative weapons exports and as joint business projects with South Korea founder amid worsening relations.
Humanitarian aid which feeds millions has declined due to political factors and donor fatigue, despite "chronic" food shortages and other economic deprivation.
The North is also trying to cope with pressures arising from its disastrous currency revaluation last November 30 and a collapsed public health system, the ICG said.
In spite of the pressures on the regime, the state security apparatus makes a popular revolution impossible, the ICG said.
"But despite the loyalty of elites in the party and the military, a sudden split in the leadership, although unlikely, is not out of the question."
Robert Templer, the ICG Asia programme director, said instability, a coup or even regime collapse would not be observable from the outside until well under way.
But "any of these scenarios could create a humanitarian emergency that might require international intervention".
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