최근 화폐 개혁과 김정일의 후계자와 관련된 북한의 급작스런 정세에 서울이 언제 어떻게 정권 붕괴 또는 다른 “갑작스런 변화”에 대응해야 되느냐를 놓고 의견이 엇갈리고 있다. 민주당 박지원 정책위의장은 22일 BBS라디오에 출연해 "박남기 전 노동당 계획재정부장의 총살설과 미국무성 캠벨 차관보의 김 위원장 남은 수명 3년에 대한 발언 모두 확인 안된 추측에 불과하다"고 일축했다. 박 정책위의장은 또 "북한이 붕괴되더라도 누군가는 북한을 이끌고 간다"면서 "이러한 논의들은 북한체제 응집력을 높여줄 뿐"이라고 주장했다.
North Korea's rapidly dwindling economic conditions - coupled with the ongoing challenges of a power transition from Kim Jong-il to his youngest son - have recently rekindled debate on how and when Seoul should prepare for a regime collapse or other "sudden changes" in the North.
Politicians yesterday joined the debate. Park Jie-won, a key liberal lawmaker, strongly denounced speculation predicting a regime meltdown in Pyongyang.
"Speculation about North Korea is simply that - speculation," Park said on a radio program. He was referring to reports here saying that the North has eliminated a key financial official for the botched currency reform, and also claims that Kim Jong-il may have only several more years to live.
He stressed that excessive debate over North Korean emergency situations serve "only to add to North Korea's regime cohesiveness."
Deterioration in the North Korean economy in the aftermath of a bungled currency reform in November last year have been fueling concerns that Seoul needs to better prepare for dramatic changes in the North.
An upcoming meeting on sudden North Korean changes involving the United States, South Korea and China has added to the controversy, with some claiming that it signals that nations are fast preparing for unrest or other internal problems in the North.
Experts, however, were mostly in agreement that while Seoul, and any other country affected by the North Korean regime, should prepare, excessive concern or debate were unhealthy.
"Issues about how and when we should cope with North Korean unrest should be dealt with under the surface," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies here. "We need to be prepared, but publicly debating over the issue in the North's face is not a smart policy since it's basically saying, we are waiting for you to collapse."
Possibly to head off these attempts, Beijing has recently stressed that even in case of a North Korean meltdown, Pyongyang's sovereign rights as a member of the United Nations must be acknowledged.
Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at Sejong Institute, said that, overall, reports on North Korea's economic hardships and the anger the people are feeling fail to accurately reflect the sentiment of the entire nation, not to mention how the leadership is dealing with the issues.
"We hear these reports from the few North Koreans who defect, or possibly unidentified intelligence reports. We would need much more to work on in order to presume that North Korea is on the verge of demise," he said.
Cheong added that despite constant speculation that North Korea would soon fall, it remains in place thanks to a leadership focused on keeping the regime afloat.
Song Young-sun, a right-wing politician, however, appeared to be reflecting concern from conservatives who believe the nation should be better prepared against a possible public uprising.
Notable deterioration in the North Korean economy has been fueling reportedly suffered severe blows in the aftermath of a bungled currency reform in November last year.
Many believe Kim Jong-il willingly sacrificed financial gains in order to renew his control over the state as he is poised to hand down his authority to his youngest son Jong-eun.
One expert, speaking anonymously, said there would be many scenarios to consider even if the transition falters.
"A collapse is not the only scenario," he said.
All the same, both government officials and observers were quick to note that the current North Korean situation - both political and economic - were different from when Kim Jong-il assumed power since he had already been in control of the state.
With Kim Jong-eun, it is a different matter, and that is the reason for such widespread concern or anticipation towards a possible North Korean demise, they said.
(jemmie@heraldm.com)
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